-36Snapshot ML · 7d
Weak Bearish
-100-500+50+100
OOF IC +0.72·Hit rate 69%·n=405
Predicting SHORT over 7 days — position sized to conviction
Regime Overview
Fear & Greed36Fear
HTF StructureMacro Bearish
DerivativesNeutral
ETFsStrong Outflow
Exchange FlowsNeutral
Asset:
Brief price$2,023
Trade Idea
SHORT ▼1h133.9% notional
Entry$2,023
Target$1,960
Distance-3.09%
INVS4$2,065
INVS3$2,056
INVS2$2,048
INVS1$2,040
Entry$2,023
TGTT1$1,992
TGTT2$1,960
TGTT3$1,929
Returns Curve
HTF Technical StructureMacro Bearish
rsi divergence bullish
Price$2,023
Moving Averages
SMA 50$2,057 (1.7% above)
SMA 200$2,208 (9.1% above)
MA CrossDEATH
Momentum
Daily RSI33.3
4H RSI45.7
RSI DivergenceBULLISH?
Daily MFI48.0?
4H MFI66.8
RSI/MFI Gap-21.1 pts?
VWAP
Weekly VWAP$2,045 (1.1% above)
Monthly VWAP$2,215 (9.5% above)
STH Realized Price
Cost Basis (155d)$2,305 (13.9% above)?
Distance-12.23%
CVD
Futures Short/LongFLAT / RISING
Futures Divergence
Spot Short/LongRISING / RISING
Spot Divergence
Spot/Futures AlignSpot leads?
Divergence Confluence
DirectionBULLISH?
Strength0.59
Sourcesrsi (0.93)?
Structure
StructureLH_LL?
Volatility
ATR (4h)$20.85
Volume Profile
POC$2,119 (4.7% above)
VA High$2,154 (6.5% above)
VA Low$2,013 (0.5% below)
Price PositionINSIDE VA
POC Volume9.7%
Rangeundefined candles (~NaNd)
Sweep Levels
Month/Week High$2,142 (5.9% above)?
Month/Week Low$1,967 (2.8% below)?
Signal Freshness
Last Pivot Age3 candles ago
LLM Interpretation

ETH HTF Regime — MACRO_BEARISH / LH_LL Structure

Divergence confluence is the lead signal here: strength at 0.589 with RSI printing a high-magnitude bullish divergence (0.926) as price makes lower lows — momentum exhaustion on the downside is the primary mean reversion trigger to respect. Critically, however, there's a volume-confirmation mismatch: H4 MFI is elevated at 66.81 while daily RSI sits at a depressed 33.28, meaning buying pressure as measured by money flow does not align with the oversold momentum read — treat the divergence as a caution flag rather than a clean long setup until MFI confirms.

Price at 2023 sits 4.53% below the near POC (2119.09) and only 1.72% below structural POC (2058.40), with the two profiles diverging enough that structural POC at 2058 is the immediate gravitational target for any mean reversion bid — that level also clusters near the SMA50 at 2057 and weekly VWAP at